Scribe Chronicles: $ARA

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It all started with this.

We both had FNI.

It was my discretion to buy. I didn’t know he had it until the market was about to close and he bid us both luck. The next day, the trades were slow– painfully slow compared to the day before.

Day 1 of bounce!, he cheerily said. Are you ready?

Oh but you told me to get ready for pain. So yes, I guess I was. My positions were holding. The entire day it went that way. I was just watching while writing my scribe chronicles for ISM.

Before the day ends, the selldowns were starting to get too heavy for FNI. I don’t know how much position he has, but he knows I only have the two.

He messaged me and gave me a choice.

cutting FNI

I was done in ten seconds tops. Yup, getting faster with execution now. Why would I want the ZF candle against me? If he says he’s getting out, then I’m getting out of the way.

I don’t remember how much hit I took. Honestly, sometimes I don’t even look anymore. I don’t look at my port or how much I’m losing when I’m going to cut. That’s going to shoot a big ball of emotional bullet right through my heart and it will cloud me.

In the late 1960s, a marshmallow test was conducted by Stanford researchers on little kids aged at about 3 to 5 years old. They were given a piece of marshmallow and were instructed not to eat it before the psychologist comes back. If they succeed, they will receive another piece. The psychologist then leaves for a few minutes while the child, alone in the room, was monitored with a hidden camera.

Some ate it the moment they were alone, some fought, and some struggled but those who were able to do it, were those who didn’t look.

They covered their eyes. They watched the walls. They covered the marshmallow.

The experiment was actually about conscientiousness. But it did help me deal with my trading recently.

I just didn’t look. I try to blind myself away from the figures.


 

lost 945k.png
i like naps too.

 

I can imagine him scouring his list on what to ‘tsupit’. I’m sure he was on his toes swearing to regain his bad hit.

I, on the other hand, was busy with so much errands. We live on different time zones and my day had a lot of room for everything else I’m trying to squeeze.

 

the assignment

 

I have a class to attend the next day with a very, very strict lecturer  who hates phones. I got nervous. I was already strategically deciding where to sit. I have a hundred pages worth of pre-reading to do and I was currently swamped with important errands.

However,  I didn’t give any excuses.

After finishing a sizeable amount of work. I thought he might be waiting for my ‘assignment’.

nap because of loss

Hey…


 

Late at night, when it was all finally quiet, I sent him five charts I analyzed. I was too tired. I wanted to chart everything but I had to rest.

my charts.png

 


 

Let’s focus on $ARA. Here is the chart I made! ❤ It was my lifeline for the unavoidable crisis I was going to face the next day.

 

ara.png

The point is, ARA took a nose dive in one day. There’s bound to be a bounce for stocks that sunk that fast. Add another leading indicator to ensure strength and you’ll do fine.

I started placing the prices at every fibo level and planned to do sand-bagging. It’s a technique Zee uses when he’s trying to get a good low AEP on stocks he expects to bounce. The lower the price gets, the bigger amount of shares he buys.

The next day, it was game time.  Dedicating yourself to stick to your plan was phenomenal work. There is nothing more nerve-wracking than doing what I thought I should do, and sticking to my guns even as the price falls. I imagine myself as a rookie cadet sent to fight a war– alone! My strategy, my execution. I have plan B and C with what to do if the enemy advances farther towards me… Because basically that’s what I expected to happen!

I bought as soon as it hits a few flucs lower than the 50% fibo, bought again as it went down in between 61 and 50 because I was about to get very busy and wouldn’t be able to check my phone. The price was also at a strong historical support.

ara near 2.36 5 yr chart.png

 

I decided to place a GTC order on 61.8 fibo. Just in case.

After my second buying, I was entirely blind and skittish. I couldn’t see the chart. I could barely open my phone– only enough to check my messages and reply very quickly.

iniimagine ko lang chart


 

I do have ISM too, as you all know. On the other side of the universe there it was. I was told to ready myself. Maximum tolerance.

That day ISM was also taking a beating. I was holding my breath every minute or so as it tests its supports.

ism hold, mag add

A part of me is quite a spartan, thinking how much good a deal it is to get more ISM. Another part of me is myself, feeling how I feel when my mother shouts my full name in an angry tone at home. “—— —— —– —-, come here right now, young lady! Isa!” Uh oh. Uh oh. Uh oh.

But I was also partially distracted and couldn’t worry at a full extent, since I can only see the price from time to time.

I was immediately surprised when I  took another peek and saw it kicked.

 

bat sumipa IS

 

If ISM was a guy, he’d be the tough Russian military man portrayed on TV. The strength was undeniable.

buti di nagcut

Else, I would have been whipsawed I guarantee you.


Going back to ARA, a tiny miracle was happening. First, my 61.8 GTC got hit and then second, the price fall seem to have stopped. Thankfully, Zee was trying to help ease my anxiety.

ism and ara green

A strong close.

I showed him my port.

congrats on your first bounce.png


Remember me asking for a strong close?

Well, the tiny miracle turned into a big one. The price stopped falling, and then the buying continued.. and continued.. Until.

giggling on your seat, exit strat.png


Here’s my execution trades:

ara execution.png

And here is Zee’s:

zee exec.png

Holy heck! This is what full time trading looks like. Can you handle it? Just to clarify, if it says Executed it means all his bids got hit (look at column 6). If it says Partially Executed he placed bids, got some hits, and then he cancelled (look at column 7 for that and add them up; provided it’s the same price, it’s the same bid cluster).

That’s about 12 buying times. Focus is a must. This is what professional trading is all about!

As for me, I atleast got this.

ang saya ko

He’s got emotions, folks. Atleast when the mentee actually did the right thing– to his surprise. 😀

After market hours, he posted his gains. 1.5 million php. He didn’t just recover the losses he had the day before, he also managed to make more than half a million more in profits.

Let’s put that in a perspective and maybe, just maybe, we won’t ever quit.


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On the day we had cut our FNI and he told me he’ll sleep off his losses,  I suddenly remembered that I was not the only person who lost that day. He did too. Larger. I kind of forgot about that.

He plays it big so if he loses, he loses bigger than I do. My entire port isn’t even as big as the amount of money he had to cut in one day.

Some time ago, I remember him saying, “How can you stomach a 500k loss on a large port if you can’t swallow a 50k loss?”

I know he’s more used to it but I wanted to make sure. So thinking quickly, I decided to go with Eraserheads.

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You can’t win at everything but you can try.

P.S. Damn you FNI kahit kelan ka talaga.


Hello everyone, I guess that’s it for my first bounce play ever! I hope you learned something because I definitely did. I wrote this in a hurry trying to meet my deadline but I was, as usual, quite busy with things! It took me two separate times to complete this. The first half was written under different physical conditions (hint: tired and hungry) thus a very direct to the point output. I still hope it gives you a valuable insight on how to trade this market better though. It would make it all worth it 🙂

I’m hoping next week would be better considering how fickle the market has been lately. I’m sending you all my hopes and well wishes.

Forever yours,

Celeste

If you wanna sing along heck why not? 🙂

The music video is soooo 90s. Hahaha ❤

 

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7 thoughts on “Scribe Chronicles: $ARA

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      1. good to know 🙂 mag bounce yan.. just a matter of time.
        and i like the fundamental driver (MRT7 adjacent property)

        Like

  1. Dear Celeste.. would you kindly share how sandbagging is done? I’m so happy having read your blog. I bought the same stocks that same day – ARA and ISM (for bounce play) at the close.. had high AEP so I sold the next day. ..measly 3% gain on each stock.. your scribe chronicles are heaven sent dear! Bcoz of u I now know what I needed to do.. pls pls share how it’s done ❤❤❤ more power to you and ZF ♡♡♡

    Like

  2. good read.ang galing,bounce play na my application ng sandbagging..meron na akong idea next time..thanks fo writing this.God Bless

    Like

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